Value Score and Edge %
One ranks props. The other measures the gap. Together, they find the value.
Value Score is a single number from 0 to 100 that ranks every prop on the slate. High Value means props the model thinks are mispriced in your favor. Low Value means sharp lines or props with negative edge.
Edge % is the rawer cousin. It's the gap, in percentage points, between the published market's implied probability and the model's projected hit rate. Positive Edge means the line is underpriced relative to what the model expects.
Value Score: 0 to 100
Value Score is a composite. It folds in weighted hit rate, the projection gap (model versus line), DvP matchup, game context (pace, total, spread), and home/away factors. The weighting is calibrated so high Value tracks long-term performance, not just one big edge in one column. Use it to triage: a 78 Value prop is worth research; a 32 Value prop usually isn't.
Edge %: the gap
Edge starts simple. Take the published market's odds, strip the spread, and you get the implied probability — the published market's read on how often this hits. Then take the model's projected hit rate. The difference is the Edge. A +14% Edge means the model thinks this hits 14 percentage points more often than the line implies. Negative Edge means the line is sharp; the model agrees with the published market.
How to use them
- Sort by Value — the top of the slate. Best risk-adjusted opportunities.
- Sort by Edge — biggest mispricings. Sometimes high-variance, sometimes pure mispriced gold.
- Filter by both — Value > 70 and Edge > 5% surfaces the cleanest plays.
- Cross-check with hit rate — high Edge plus high L10 hit rate is the strongest signal we publish.
- Respect variance — even +14% Edge will lose plenty of individual bets. The math works at scale, with discipline.
Where to find them
Value and Edge are columns on the main table. Click headers to sort. The Value column has a tooltip showing the breakdown — which factors are pulling the score up or down. On the player detail page, every alt line in the ladder has its own Edge calculation.