Hit rates, five windows
L5, L10, L20, head-to-head, and full season — at a glance.
Hit rate is the most honest number in prop research. It tells you what actually happened: at this exact line, this player crossed it X out of Y times. No projection, no model adjustment, no opinion — just the historical pass-fail rate.
props.fyi shows five hit-rate windows on every prop, so you can see whether a player is trending hot, cooling off, or steady. Sort the table by any of them. Filter by range. Use them as a cross-check on the model's projection.
Five windows we track
- L5 — last 5 games. The hottest read on current form.
- L10 — last 10 games. The default span. Hot or cold is visible in the bar chart.
- L20 — last 20 games. Smooths out one or two outliers.
- H2H — head-to-head: every game this player has played against tonight's opponent, this season and last.
- Season — full-season hit rate at the active line.
How to read it
Each row in the table shows a percentage and a tiny bar chart. The L10 chart visualizes the last 10 games as a hit/miss grid — green for crossed, dim for missed. Hover a column to see exactly which game and what the player put up. Streaks become obvious instantly.
How we calculate it
For each prop we pull the player's actual stat in each game in the span and check it against the line that's posted right now. No back-fitting to old lines. If the line moved from 23.5 to 25.5 mid-season, the L20 hit rate reflects how the player would have performed against the current line over those 20 games. That's the apples-to-apples comparison that matters for tonight's bet.
Where to find it
L10 is the default span on the main table — the bar chart lives in the L10 column. L5, L20, H2H, and season percentages live in adjacent columns; toggle them on if your layout is condensed. Open a player detail page and the season-wide bar chart shows every game in chronological order with the line overlaid.